海口生态足迹的动态分析与预测

Dynamic Analysis and Forecast of Haikou Ecological Footprint

计算和分析了海口的生态足迹、生态容量、生态盈余及赤字状况,并对2010—2012、2038年的生态足迹情况进行了预测.分析结果显示:2000—2008年,海口生态足迹增长96.72%,年均增长10.75%,生态容量维持在7.4×105～7.9×105 hm2之间;人均生态足迹由0.245 1 hm2增长至0.396 3 hm2,人均生态容量由0.492 3 hm2下降至0.424 8 hm2;生态盈余呈逐年下降趋势,2009年转为生态赤字.可见,海口需要采取有效的措施,以遏制生态足迹过快增长,进一步优化城市发展与生态环境之间的关系.

The ecological footprint model was used to analysis the ecological footprint,ecological capacity and ecological surplus/deficit of Haikou and forecast the ecological footprint situations from 2010 to 2012 2038.The results indicated that from 2000 to 2008,Haikou＇s ecological footprint was increased by 96.72% and annual increase rate was 10.75%,ecological capacity was maintained in the range of 7.4×105 to 7.9×105 hm2;ecological footprint per capita was increased from 0.245 1 hm2 to 0.396 3 hm2,and ecological capacity per capita fell down from 0.492 3 hm2 to 0.424 8 hm2;ecological surplus was decreased year by year,and reached a pure ecological deficit in 2009.These data suggested that it is necessary for Haikou City to take effective measures to curb the excessive growth of ecological footprint and further optimize the relationship between the economic development and the ecological environment.