基于Mycielski算法的风电场风速预测

Wind Speed Prediction Based on Mycielski Algorithm

对已有的风速预测方法进行了总结归类,并使用一种新颖的基于Mycielski算法进行风电场风速预测,建立了基于该算法的预测模型,并且同持续法风速预测进行对比,同时对二者的误差进行了分析。实验结果表明,基于Mycielski风速预测模型在风速平滑段有着非常高的预测精度,其均方根误差与误差方差均小于持续法,误差为零的概率高于持续法。

Wind speed prediction has an important significance on large scale wind power integration. In this paper, wind speed prediction methods have been summarized and categorized, and a novel prediction model based on the Mycielski algorithm for wind speed forecast is established. The method is compared with persistence algorithm, and their errors are analyzed. The results show that, Mycielski wind speed prediction model has very high prediction accuracy at wind speed smooth section, whose RMSE and Error Variance are all less than persistence method, and zero-error probability is higher than persistence method.