项目集成控制中不确定参数挣值法研究

A Study on Earned Value Method for Uncertain Parameters in Project Integration Control

针对传统挣值方法没有考虑计划指标不确定性的问题,文章将挣值法与统计学的一般理论相结合,将不确定信息的处理方法引入挣值分析,提出不确定性参数挣值法。该方法通过分析工序作业成本—进度的统计规律性,建立项目成本—进度计划的控制区间,根据项目实际执行情况得到更客观的评价信息,在拓展了挣值分析的功能的同时,改善了计划实施的可靠度。

As traditional Earned Value Method doesn＇t take the uncertainty of planned index into consideration, this paper combines Earned Value Method with general theories of statistics, introduces the ways of dealing with uncertain information to earned value analysis and puts forward with Earned Value Method of uncertain parameters. By analyzing the statistical regularity of the cost-schedule in work procedure, establishing the control range of project cost-schedule plan, and then obtaining more objective assessing information based on the actual implementation of projects, this method improves the scientific rationality of planned implementation evaluation while expanding the functions of earned value analysis.