湖北省畜牧业内部生产结构探索及总产值预测

Exploration of the Internal Production Structure of Animal Husbandry in Hubei Province and Prediction of Its Output

为充分认识湖北省畜牧业发展现状,促进其更快更好发展。在展开理论研究的同时,运用层次聚类法对省内畜产品结构和畜种结构进行了分析,运用灰色系统对湖北省2009—2012年畜牧业总产值进行了预测。结果显示,湖北省畜牧业以发展生猪、家禽、肉牛和肉羊养殖为主,以畜养马、驴、骡等多元畜禽种类为目标,同时还产出少量羊毛、蚕茧和蜂蜜等产品,具有较大发展潜力,且畜牧业总产值呈逐年稳定增长趋势;建议应不断优化省内畜牧业内部生产结构,实行生产、加工、流通一体经营等,以加快畜牧业发展速度。

To fully understand the developmental actuality of animal husbandry in Hubei Province,and promote its faster and better development.This paper used the hierarchical clustering method to analyze the structure of animal products and animal species in Hubei Province while starts the theoretical study,and used the gray system to predict the total output value of animal husbandry in 2009-2012 in Hubei Province.The results show that animal husbandry in Hubei Province mainly breeds pigs,poultry,beef cattle and sheep,and keeps horses,donkeys,mules and other livestock species,and also output a small amount of wool,silk cocoons and honey products and so on,with great development potential,and the output is in the steadily increasing trend.Recommending to optimize the internal production structure of animal husbandry in the province,and to implement an integration of the production,processing,circulation,to accelerate the pace of development of animal husbandry.