辽宁旬滚动短期气候预测方法研究及系统建设

The Research of Short-term Climate Forecast of Each Ten Days Rolling 30 Days and the System Construction in Liaoning Province

随着中国经济发展和社会进步,气象灾害对经济社会的影响越来越广泛、严重,具有良好效果的气候预测能够在防灾减灾过程中发挥更大的作用,而利用动力气候模式结果对温度、降水等气候要素进行解释应用则可以有效地提高预测准确率。利用国家气候中心的动力延伸预报产品,采取经验正交函数展开和多元回归相结合的方法,建立逐旬滚动的未来30天的气温和降水预报方程。结果显示,此方程在2007和2008年的业务应用中取得了较好的服务效果。经过PS评分检验得到较好的预测效果;建立了简洁易操作的系统平台,大大提高了气候预测业务人员的工作效率。

As China＇s economic development and social progress,the impact of weather disasters on economic and social are more and more extensive and serious.The good results of climate forecast can play a greater role in disaster prevention and mitigation,and by using dynamic climate model results on temperature,precipitation,and other weather elements can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.Based on NCC dynamical climate model outputting products,by combining EOF and multiple regression,temperature and precipitation forecasting equations for 30 days of future which ten days rolling were established.Results showed that good service is achieved in 2007 and 2008 business applications and the PS evaluation score was much better;the system platform which was brief and operability has been developed,so the efficiency of climate forecasting artisan was improved.