基于粮食安全角度的三峡库区耕地保护研究——以重庆市巫山县为例

Study on Farmland Protection of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Food Security——A Case Study at Wushan County in Chongqing

耕地的数量是粮食生产能力的核心要素,为保障三峡库区粮食战略安全及民生稳定,保护耕地是关键。笔者以库区巫山县为例,采用粮食安全耕地面积模型,综合分析人口、粮食单产、农业结构调整、建设占用耕地等因素,预测2010年、2020年巫山县耕地需求量及有效耕地供给量。分析得出,巫山县2010年、2020年耕地需求量分别为33428.57hm2、33391.25hm2;耕地可供给量分别为41102.82hm2、40205.62hm2。结合县情及当地农业生产条件,确定巫山县2010年、2020年的耕地保护规模分别为41200.00hm2、40400.00hm2。通过对耕地供需平衡分析得出,基于粮食安全的耕地可供给量大于耕地需求量,能够满足未来粮食生产目标。在此基础上笔者提出了保障耕地数量及粮食安全相关建议。

The quantity of cultivated land is the main element of the grain production capacity,and farmland protection is the key for food security and livelihood in three gorges reservoir area.This paper took Wushan county as an example,on the basis of comprehensive analysis of some factors,such as population,unit area grain yield,the adjustment of agricultural structure,the farmland demand in construction,predicted the cultivated land demand quantity and effective supply of cultivated land in 2010,2020 by cultivated area of food security model.The results showed that the land demand areas in 2010,2020 were 33428.57 hm2,33391.25 hm2,and the effective supply areas in 2010,2020 were 41102.82 hm2,40205.62 hm2.Having regard to the poor agricultural conditions and local situation,it was determined that farmland protection areas in 2010,2020 were 41200.00 hm2,40400.00 hm2.It was concluded that the effective supply of cultivated land was higher than the demand quantity area and could fulfill future food production targets.And this paper put forward some suggestions to ensure farmland quantity and the grain security.