基于技术扩散模型的区域“数字鸿沟”演变阶段划分

A Division to Evolution Stages of "Digital Divide" between Regions Based on Technology Diffusion Model

基于经典的技术扩散模型,构建了"ICTs的扩散模型",在模型中推导出ICTs扩散的时间路径函数,通过函数图形描绘发现其图形是S形曲线,然后用两个地区的时间路径函数之差表示出区域"数字鸿沟",在此基础上对区域"数字鸿沟"演变的阶段进行划分。研究结果表明,由于不同地区内外部因素、"潜在采纳者"总数、最初使用者数量存在差异,导致不同地区ICTs扩散的时间路径函数不同,从而表现出区域"数字鸿沟",其演变可划分为逐渐扩大阶段、稳定阶段、逐渐缩小阶段。本文从理论上揭示了区域"数字鸿沟"的演变规律。

Firstly,＂ICTs diffusion model＂ is established based on classical technology diffusion model,and time path function of diffusion is derived from the model.By the method of depicting graph,the graph of time path function shows itself as S-Curve pattern.After that,＂digital divide＂ between regions is shown through difference of two region＇s time path functions.And on this basis evolution stages of ＂digital divide＂ between regions are divided.The research result shows that the internal and external factors,number of ＂potential user＂,the number of initial user in different regions are discrepant,so time path functions of different regions are diverse,and difference of diverse time path functions indicates ＂digital divide＂ between regions.Therefore,evolution of ＂digital divide＂ between regions is divided into three stages： the gradual expansion stage,the stabilization stage,the gradual reducing stage.This research theoretically reveals the evolution rule of ＂digital divide＂ between regions.