基于VAR模型的中国产业发展与二氧化碳排放的实证分析

Demonstrative analysis of China industry development and carbon dioxide let basing on VAR mode

本文运用VAR模型对中国1987～2008年间产业发展与二氧化碳排放的关系进行实证分析。研究表明,三次产业与二氧化碳排放存在长期均衡关系,中国的节能减排对治理工业的二氧化碳排放起到积极作用;三次产业发展促进二氧化碳排放增加,其中服务业替代工业成为主要因素。

Using VAR model,this paper made an empir-ical study on industrial growth and the CO2 emissions of China from 1978 to 2008.The evidence shows that three industries with CO2 emissions have been long-term equilibrium relationship.Energy saved reduced actively CO2 emissions of industry.All of three industry has developed to lead to increasing CO2 emissions,and services has substituted industry as the major factor that has increased CO2 emissions.