中国农地产权制度改革风险评估

Reform Risk Assessment of Farmland Property Rights System in China

研究目的:定量评估中国农地产权制度朝国有化、私有化和集体所有三种路径进行改革的风险,为农地产权制度改革路径决策提供参考.研究方法:鱼骨图法和层次分析法.研究结果:农地产权制度朝国有化改革的风险系数为0.419 5,朝私有化改革的风险系数为0.375 6,在现有集体所有的基础上改革的风险最小,为0.204 9.研究结论:(1)农地产权制度改革应特别注意规避政治风险(0.602 5);(2)改革应防范群众反对(0.267 5)引发社会动荡的风险(0.228 4);(3)改革需要调查民众的农地产权意愿,维护大多数群众的利益.

The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively assess the risk for three approaches for the farmland property rights system reform in China： nationalization,privatization and collectivization to provide reference for the decision-makers,using fishbone diagram and analytic hierarchy process.The result indicates that the reform risk indexes are estimated to be 0.419 5,0.375 6 and 0.204 9 for nationalization,privatization and collectivization,respectively.Thus it is concluded that in the implementation of the farmland property rights system reform,great attention must paid to evading political risk whose risk index is 0.602 5,preventative measures must be adopted to prevent possible public opposition（0.267 5） or society turbulence（0.228 4）,and investigation must be made of the willingness of the masses for such a reform and the benefits of the majority of the populace should be protected.