“十二五”我国经济发展趋势及石油石化行业走势

Trends in Chinese Economy and Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry during Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period

"十二五"期间,全球经济增长模式和增长格局将继续调整,世界经济增长速度可能放缓,全球经济将寻求结构再平衡,若干国家将在新能源、节能减排、信息技术、物联网等领域形成新的战略优势,这对我国总体是机遇大于挑战。同期,我国还将处于工业化、城镇化加快发展阶段,国民经济仍具有持续平稳较快发展的基本条件。总体来说,经济增长速度会适度放缓,同时"调结构、促转型"将会取得实质性进展;需求结构进一步改善,内需、特别是消费对经济增长的拉动作用将明显增强;战略性新兴产业和生产性服务产业等现代产业将会加快发展,三次产业结构会进一步优化;两型社会建设将深入推进,节能减排降碳力度会进一步加大。"十二五"期间,世界石油石化工业生产和消费重心将继续东移,围绕着上游资源和下游产品的竞争将更加激烈,低碳经济与环境保护将成为行业焦点。我国能源消费将继续保持增长,但能源供求关系总体上趋于缓和。面对新的发展形势,我国石油石化企业应以石油和能源行业发展趋势及市场需求为导向,加快战略性结构调整;以技术创新和科学管理为重点,实现创新发展和内生增长;进一步夯实安全环保和节约发展基础,占领绿色发展的制高点;完善有利于科学发展的激励和考评机制。

During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period,the world economy will continue to change the way it grows.Its growth may slow down and it will seek to re-balance its structure.Some countries will be able to establish new strategic advantages in areas such as new energy,energy saving,emission reduction,information technology and networking.China will face greater opportunities than challenges.During the period,China will also enter a stage of faster industrialization and urbanization and the basic conditions for sustained,steady and fast economic growth will remain in place.Overall,the growth of the Chinese economy will slow moderately and substantial progress is expected to be made in economic restructuring.The demand structure will continue to improve.The drive of domestic demand,particularly consumption,to economic growth will considerably increase.Modern industries such as strategic emerging industries and the productive service industry will grow at a faster pace and the three-industry structure will continue to be optimized.The program of building a resource-efficient and environmentally-friendly society will be implemented in a wider area and the effort to save energy and reduce emissions and carbon will be stepped up further.During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period,the center of the world′s petroleum and petrochemical production and consumption will continue to move eastwards and the competition surrounding upstream resources and downstream products will further intensify.Low-carbon economy and environmental protection will be the focus of the industry.China′s energy consumption will continue to grow,but the energy supply-demand picture will overall tend to ease up.In the face of a new situation,Chinese petroleum and petrochemical enterprises should quicken their strategic restructuring in line with the anticipated trends in the petroleum and energy industry as well as market demand,pursue innovative growth and endogenous growth based on technical innovation and scientific management,lay solid foundation for growth in a safe,environmentally-friendly and cost-effective manner and develop cutting-edge ＂green＂ technology and establish and improve incentive and performance evaluation systems instrumental to growth in a scientific way.