摘要
将可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)应用到人民币升值影响测算中,建立了基于CGE的人民币升值影响测算模型,该模型包含18个生产部门和4个国外账户.基于2007年数据,应用该模型模拟了人民币以5-40%不同幅度的升值情景,在其他因素或条件不变的情况下,静态地测算了人民币升值对我国对外贸易、产业发展以及社会福利等三个方面的影响.结果表明:在其他因素或条件不变的情况下,人民币升值将直接对我国的对外贸易造成极大的负面影响,进一步对我国的产业发展与社会福利造成灾难性影响.特别地,当升值幅度大于20%时,人民币升值将对我国造成严重的经济危机与社会不稳定.
In this paper, a computable general equilibrium （CGE）-based model which contains 18 production industries and 4 foreign accounts is proposed to measure the impacts of RMB appreciation. By using 2007 data, this model is applied to investigate the size of impact of RMB appreciation on China＇s foreign trade, macro economy and public welfare. The numerical simulation is carried out in eight scenarios in which the rate of RMB appreciation covers from 5 to 40%. It can be seen from the experimental results that RMB appreciation will cut off large quantity of the profit from China＇s exports and have disastrous effect on China＇s economy without the change of other conditions. In particular, when the appreciation extent exceeds 20%, it would cause serious economic crisis and social instability problems in China.
出处
《系统科学与数学》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第2期216-226,共11页
Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences
基金
国家杰出青年科学基金(71025005)
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目(90924024)
湖南省普通高等学校哲学社会科学重点研究基地开放基金项目资助
关键词
人民币升值
可计算一般均衡模型
汇率
经济影响
对外贸易.
RMB appreciation, computable general equilibrium model, exchange rate,economic impact, foreign trade.
