我国西南地区生物柴油发展潜力及其主要决定因素

POTENTIAL AND DETERMINANTS OF JATROPHA CURCAS AS FEEDSTOCKS FOR BIODIESEL IN SOUTHWEST CHINA

作为生物柴油原料的麻疯树在我国已呈现快速发展态势,但对其未来发展潜力尚缺乏实证研究.目的是通过构建麻疯树生产决策模型,模拟分析不同情景下我国西南地区麻疯树发展潜力.研究结果表明:1)在基准方案下,麻疯树种籽产量与生物柴油产量可以达到320万吨和93万吨,但难以达到预期发展目标.2)影响麻疯树发展潜力的最重要因素是技术进步、产出品(麻疯树种籽)与主要投入品(劳动与肥料)价格,其中技术进步是提升未来麻疯树发展潜力的关键,而麻疯树种籽与肥料等价格取决于能源价格.在发展以麻疯树为原料的生物柴油产业发展战略上,近期国家应把加强优良品种的选育与丰产栽培技术作为重点,未来发展需密切关注能源市场的变化.

Although there has been emerging trend of using Jatropha as feedstock for biodiesel in China,there is little empirical study on the potential of Jatropha production.The overall goal of this paper is to simulate the potential of Jatropha production under various scenarios in Southwest China by using a Jatropha production-decision-making-model.The results show that：1） the potential of Jatropha seed and biodiesel based on jatropha could reach 3.2 million tons and 930 thousand tons,respectively,under baseline scenario,which are much less than the government＇s target on Jatropha-based biodiesel production;2） major determinants of Jatropha plantation expansion are technology,output price,fertilizer price, and wage,of which technology is primary determinant.The results imply that China should pay particular attention to technology changes（e.g.,improvements of Jatropha yield and field management technology） and energy market when the country decides to develop its large scale Jatropha based biodiesel program.