银行信贷对我国对外贸易的影响及机制

The Effects of Bank Credit on China's Foreign Trade

本文研究银行信贷对我国对外贸易的长期和短期影响机制。理论分析表明,银行信贷能够通过动员储蓄和优化资源配置两种方式扩大对外贸易规模并改善贸易结构,致使银行信贷与对外贸易之间存在长期均衡关系。本文采用边限协整检验方法和误差修正模型(ARDL-ECM),使用月度数据的实证分析验证了上述理论假说。本文研究发现,银行信贷对外贸的长短期影响存在差异:短期内存在抑制效应,通过加大金融支持力度改善对外贸易的政策存在超过三个季度的时滞;长期存在规模和结构上的促进效应。本文的发现有助于人们理解信贷政策对贸易的动态影响。经济危机后我国信贷扩张的效果和对外贸易的回暖时机与我们的理论预期一致。

This paper analyzes the effects of bank credit on China＇s foreign trade. Based on the theory, this paper indicates the bank credit increases the foreign trade and improves its structure through stimulating of saving and allocation of resource, they have an equilibrium and stable relationship in the long term, Using the data of foreign trade and bank credit in China from January, 1995 to September, 2006, this paper estimates the effect mechanism by means of autoregressive distributed lag model and the bound test. The result proves that hypothesis, but the effects reverse in the short term.