资产价格、通胀率与我国流动性过剩规模

Asset Price,Inflation Rate and Excess Liquidity Scale in China

现有衡量流动性过剩规模的方法存在许多不足。通过借鉴水力学理论可以推导出中国货币需求函数,以此估算我国的流动性过剩规模。在此基础上,通过Granger检验,发现流动性过剩规模与股价、房价和通胀率的走势较吻合。因此,我们可以利用流动性过剩的机会深化金融市场的改革与创新;引导流动性流向金融市场,避免房地产市场的资产价格泡沫;将货币政策与产业政策紧密配合;选择适当的货币政策工具调控流动性。

There are many shortcomings in the existing methods used to measure the excess liquidity scale.By referring to the theories of hydraulics,this paper tries to deduce a Chinese money demand function,so as to estimate the excess liquidity scale in China.Based on this,through the Granger test,it is discovered that the excess liquidity scale has a relatively same tendency as stock price,housing price and inflation rate.Therefore,we can take advantage of the opportunities of excess liquidity to deepen the reform and innovation of the financial markets,guide the liquidity flowing into the financial market to avoid the asset price bubbles in the real estate market,match the monetary policies closely with the industrial policies,and choose the suitable monetary policy tools to control the liquidity.