基于ARIMA模型的我国能源消费结构趋势分析与预测

Chinese energy consumption structure prediction by application of ARIMA

本文运用ARIMA模型，对我国2020年前的能源消费总量及煤炭消费总量、非化石能源消费总量进行了预测，对我国能源结构现状及未来能源结构发展趋势进行了分析。预测结果表明，ARI—MA模型对能源消费量进行预测效果较好，可以作为能源消费量预测的工具。我国能源消费总量持续增大，调整经济结构和节能减排依然是我国今后经济发展的主要任务。按照目前的用能习惯和清洁能源的建设速度，煤炭仍将是我国未来的主要能源，其比例将一直在70％左右；非化石能源的比例在2020年的预测结果为11．9％，与我国提出的15％的目标还有一定的差距。论文提出我国应加快实现煤炭的清洁利用、优化煤炭定价机制、着力调整能源消费结构和加快清洁能源建设的建议。

By application of ARIMA model, the prediction of total energy consumption amount, coal and non-fossil consumption amount in China before 2020 is made. Present energy structure condition and its future tendency are analyzed. The result shows that ARIMA model is well fit for the prediction of energy consumption. Coal will still be the main energy source and its percentage accounting for the total energy a- mount will still be nearly 70% in the near future. The percentage of non-fossil energy will account for 11.9% in 2020 and cannot match the goal of 15% proposed by Chinese government. China should take measures to promote clean use of the coal, optimize price making mechanism of coal, adjust the energy consumption structure and accelerate clean energy construction.