基于统计图形的入库流量预报误差分布规律

Study on Distribution Rule of Inflow Forecasting Error for Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Statistical Graphics

基于2003~2008年三峡水库汛期入库流量预报误差资料,分析了其正态特性,给出了通过K-S检验的分段入库流量预报误差统计图形,并利用统计图形比较了Laplace与Logistic分布拟合效果。结果表明,2003~2008年三峡水库汛期入库流量预报误差基本服从正态分布,且Laplace分布更适合描述其分布规律。

Based on the data of inflow forecasting error of Three Gorges Reservoir during flood season from 2003 to 2008,the normality of the data is analyzed at first.Then the statistical graphics which has verified by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test（Simplified K-S test） is present.Finally,the fitting effect of Laplace distribution and Logistic distribution is compared with statistical graphics.The results show that the error of inflow forecasting of Three Gorges Reservoir during flood season from 2003 to 2008 is regarded as normal distribution basically,and the Laplace distribution is more suitable for representation of error distribution rule.