系统优化的GM(1,1)模型在大坝位移预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) Model to Dam Displacement Prediction Based on System Optimization

针对传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的缺陷,以陈村大坝为例,根据最小二乘原理提出了以GM(1,1)的一次累加生成建模序列所有分量的拟合误差平方和最小为约束条件,求得新灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的最优初始值,改进了原GM(1,1)模型的背景值及灰度值,并与传统GM(1,1)模型做了比较。数值仿真结果表明,新模型精度较高,预测效果较理想。

Regarding the defects of traditional gray GM（1,1） model,a new GM（1,1） prediction model is proposed to gain the initial optimal value of Chencun dam by minimizing fitting error sum squares of 1-AGO components with the principle of least square.And the background value and gray value of the original GM（1,1） model are improved.Then it compares with the traditional GM（1,1） model.Numerical simulation results show that the new model has higher precision and good prediction effect.