升值压力、汇率预期与中美贸易余额

Appreciation pressure,Exchange Rate Expectation and Trade Balance

汇率升值对贸易收支的影响效果会因相应的升值预期变化而抵消,所以在升值预期持续存在的条件下,单纯的升值并不能平衡贸易收支。汇率预期受升值压力影响,而中美贸易顺差的扩大是升值压力的重要来源,从而形成一种经济循环:中美贸易顺差增加升值压力,升值压力加强升值预期,升值预期进一步扩大贸易顺差。

This paper includes exchange rate expectation as a factor that affects the trade balance.Based on the theoretic analysis,the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate expectation can be obtained through cointegration methods.The influence of appreciation on trade balance will be offset by corresponding change on exchange rate expectation.So under the condition of persistent appreciation expectation,simply exchange rate appreciation will not better the trade balance.？Then further study on main factors affecting exchange rate expectation is made.Appreciation expectation is influenced by the appreciation pressure,while the trade surplus expansion is an important source of this pressure.Thus an economic cycle comes into being： trade surplus reinforces appreciation pressure,which enhances appreciation expectation and it is expected to further expand the trade surplus.