青少年暴力犯罪倾向性综合评判模型的初步建立

Elementary Form of Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Juvenile Tendency to Violent Crimes

目的建立青少年暴力犯罪倾向性综合评判模型,提高犯罪预测心理测验的命中率。方法采用犯罪危险性人格问卷与《社会学因素调查表》对青少年暴力罪犯与某部队新兵进行测查。任一项人格分量表的T=70为划界分数作为人格测试评判模型,结合16项社会学因素共计17项为判别指标X 1-X 17建立综合评判模型,比较人格测试评判模型与综合评判模型的误判概率。结果逆反社会、家庭问题、学校行为、社会认知、法律观念、冲动倾向、愤怒失控和显性敌意8个变量全部进入了判别函数,经检验函数有意义（λ=0.436,χ2=1153.246,P〈0.001）,可以解释总方差的100%,建立标准化典则判别函数,得到人格测试评判模型判别符合率：判断正确率为80.6%（罪犯）、89.8%（新兵）,误判概率P=0.296,0.2〈P〈0.3。而综合判别模型判断正确率为92.2%（罪犯）、98.9%（新兵）,误判概率P=0.089,P〈0.1。结论暴力犯罪倾向性综合评判模型判别效度较高,可用于预防犯罪工作。

Objective To establish comprehensive evaluation model for juvenile tendency to violent crimes,in order to enhance the hit ratio of predicting crime test.Methods The Criminal Risk Personality Questionnaire and Social Factors Inventory were employed to test two teenager groups： violent criminals and recruits in the army.T=70 being the cut-off point of any personality scale was Personality questionnaire model（ModelⅠ）,Comprehensive evaluation model（ModelⅡ） was confirmed by 16 social factors and ModelⅠ.The probability of mis-discrimination differences between two models were compared.Results Discriminate analysis indicated that ANT,FAM,SCH,SOC,DQ,VIO,ANG and HOS were the most important variables（λ=0.436,χ2=1153.246,P〈0.001）,and standardized canonical discriminant function was set up.Probability of mis-discrimination of ModelⅠand ModelⅡ was P1=0.296 and P2=0.089 respectively.Conclusion The discriminative validity of Comprehensive evaluation model is higher than that of ModelⅠ,and it can be applied to the anticrime.