中国西部地区金融发展的经济效应(1952—2008)

The Economic Effect of Financial Development of Western Region in China:1952-2008

基于金融发展与经济增长理论,运用西部地区1952—2008年的时间序列数据,通过单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验以及方差分解,对我国西部地区金融发展与经济增长的关系进行了研究。结果显示:西部地区金融发展规模长期促进了经济的增长,但金融发展效率即贷存比长期对经济增长产生了抑制作用,而农业信贷资金的投入也没能成为促进经济增长的重要因素。在此基础上,提出深化金融体制改革,推出多层次、多元性的金融产品,调整和优化业务品种结构,强化对于农业信贷资金的监管力度等促进西部地区金融发展与经济增长政策。

Based on the theory of financial development and economic growth,this paper uses the data of the western region in China over the period 1952-2008,and does some research on the relationship between financial development and economic growth by the Unit Root Test,Cointegration Test,Granger Causality Test,Variance Decomposition.The results show that the scale of financial development stimulates the growth of the economy in the long term,but the loan to deposit ratio has negative side on the increase of the economy,and meanwhile,the delivery of agricultural credit funds fails to be the important element of promoting the economy.On this basis,this paper proposes some suggestions on how to coordinate the financial development with economic growth.in western region of China.