中国省域尺度低碳经济发展综合水平评价

Development Levels of Low-Carbon Economy at Provincial Scales in China

低碳经济方兴未艾,是未来世界的发展趋势。本文运用层次分析和k均值聚类方法,构建了一套针对中国省域尺度的低碳经济发展水平评价指标体系和指数。论文对中国大陆30个省(市、自治区)的低碳经济发展水平现状进行了评价,并对其进行类型划分,得出了4种类型的低碳经济发展水平包括低碳区、相对低碳区、相对高碳区和高碳区,并分析了影响省域低碳经济综合发展水平的相对优势指标和相对劣势指标。评估结果表明,我国一多半的省份属于相对高碳和高碳区,由此说明我国目前经济发展处于相对高碳阶段。论文最后指出,推进低碳经济的发展,重要的是"开源节流":所谓"开源",即指开发新能源和增加林地植被覆被,以降低温室气体的排放和增大对温室气体的吸收;"节流"指通过产业结构的调整和能源利用效率的提高,来减少碳排放。

Low-carbon Economy （LCE） would be a prospective trend in the world as development of its theory continues. The authors established an index system and a weighted aggregative index to evaluate the development level of LCE at provincial scales in China's Mainland using the Analytical Hierarchy Process （AHP） and K-Means Cluster. A judgment matrix was constructed after a structure model of AHP was built. Then, we consulted a number of experts specializing in the fields of resources, environment, economics, and sustainable development, making an attempt to obtain the weights of each index. A consistency check was performed to ensure the reliability of these weights. By adopting the method of weighted average, we derived the overall low-carbon economy development index （LCI）. The K-Means Cluster was subsequently applied to classify the study areas. In particular, this study assessed the current status of the LCE levels of 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China's Mainland. The 30 study cases were conceptually divided into four types, i.e., low-carbon region, relatively low-carbon region, relatively high-carbon region, and high-carbon region. Furthermore, the authors systematically analyzed advantageous and disadvantageous indices which had a key impact on the comprehensive levels of LCE for the 30 study cases. Results show that more than half of China’s provincial areas can be classified as relatively high-carbon regions, e.g., Jilin, Anhui, Liaoning, Henan, Hebei, and Shandong. There are only 4 provinces involved in the category of low-carbon regions, i.e., Beijing, Fujian, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, which are the most developed areas in China. In fact, relatively low-carbon provinces include some provinces in western China, which is primarily due to an undeveloped economy, like Qinghai, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi. Shanxi and Ningxia pertain to high-carbon regions, which is in accord with the common sense of people. In general, China’s current development level of LCE is at a stage of relatively high-carbon. Much effort needs to be made to progressively achieve a low-carbon status for China. It is suggested that the key procedure for LCE development in China be to increase the input and decrease the output of carbon emissions, where increasing the input of carbon emissions means reducing the emissions and increasing the absorption of greenhouse gases through exploiting new resources and increasing forest coverage. Decreasing the output of carbon emissions is intended to substantially reduce carbon emissions by adjusting the industrial structure and improving energy use efficiency.