中国低碳试点省份经济增长与碳排放关系研究

Relationships between Economic Growth and CO_2 Emissions for Low-Carbon Pilot Provinces in China

应对全球气候变化,减少二氧化碳为主的温室气体排放是当前可持续发展的热点。目前中国已成为全世界最大的二氧化碳排放国,如何在保持经济稳定增长的同时降低碳排放是中国面临的严峻挑战。本文以中国国家发展和改革委员会公布的首批低碳试点省份:陕西、广东、辽宁、湖北、云南5省为研究对象,基于IPCC国家温室气体排放清单编制指南核算5省份1995年-2008年能源消费产生的二氧化碳排放,并通过经济增长与二氧化碳排放关系的脱钩分析,探讨5个省份1995年-2008年经济增长与碳排放变化的相关关系。研究显示,5个省份在1995年-2008年间经济快速增长的同时碳排放迅速增加,经济增长与碳排放均呈现"弱脱钩"态势;预计伴随经济进一步增长,碳排放在未来很长一段时间内仍将呈增长趋势;如何实现碳排放总量减排而又达到经济增长与碳排放的"绝对脱钩",是中国低碳经济战略的首要难题。

Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gases and tracking global climate change are research hotspots of sustainable development. China has been experiencing rapid economic growth, and already become one of the largest emitters of CO2. Delinking CO2 emissions from economy growth is challenges as well as strategies for China’s sustainable development. In this study, we investigated low-carbon development in 5 provinces, i.e., Shaanxi, Yunnan, Guangdong, Liaoning, and Hubei in China, which are national pilot provinces for low-carbon development published by the National Development and Reform Commission. Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, energy-related CO2 emissions were accounted in the 5 provinces from 1995 to 2008. Furthermore, for tracing processes and describe trends in CO2 emissions induced by humans, an indicator system was established for describing the relationship between economy growth and CO2 emissions based on the decoupling theory. By adopting statistical data during the period 1995-2008, the relationships between gross domestic product （GDP） and CO2 emissions can be characterized by weak, strong, and recessive/expansive decoupling. Results reveal that： 1） Energy-related CO2 emissions in the 5 provinces increased rapidly from 1995 to 2008, which were more than one time of those in 1995 on average. 2） Based on empirical analysis, the relationship between economic growth and CO2 in the 5 provinces was on a weak decoupling status during the period 1995-2008, which corresponded to the macro trend in China. 3） Phenomena of strong decoupling existed in Shaanxi, Hubei, and Liaoning Provinces during the period 1995-1999. This implies the possibility of decoupling economic growth from CO2 emissions in the future. Decreases in the decoupling index in 2007 and 2008 may imply the effect of energy saving and emissions reduction by the government. 3） The relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions will be in weak decoupling for a long run in China because of sustained economic growth. The key point for China’s low-carbon development is to shift the development mode from weak decoupling to strong decoupling, which implies economic growth and CO2 emissions reduction. It is also indicated that balancing economic growth and environment preservation would become the most critical issue for China’s sustainable development.