中国交通运输部门节能潜力和碳排放预测

Energy Saving Potential and Carbon Emissions Prediction for the Transportation Sector in China

本文利用交通运输部门运输产品的历史数据和经济增长数据,运用线性回归方法,预测了未来中国交通运输部门的运输产品,在此基础上,测算了交通运输部门的能源消费和碳排放,并计算了潜在的节能能力。研究结果发现:①在未来一段时期内,交通运输量还会处于高速增长期;②伴随着交通运输量的快速增长,交通运输领域的能源消费和碳排放也会快速增长,其增长速度均高于全社会的增长速度;③在2050年,中国达到发达国家的水平时,交通运输领域的能源消费占全社的比重、排放的CO_2占全社会的比重分别是16%和14%左右,低于目前发达国家的比重;④通过对节能潜力的分析,发现交通模式的改变会增加能源消费量,而技术进步对降低能耗的作用非常显著。

With high consumption of energy, especially petroleum resources, the transportation industry has been receiving much attention. The author analyzed traffic growth and current situations, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in China. First, a comparison of international carbon emissions and energy consumption was performed. Using passenger-kilometers and freight ton-kilometers historical data and gross domestic product （GDP） data in combination with linear regression, passenger-kilometers and freight ton-kilometers from 2020 to 2050 were predicted. Meanwhile, the energy intensity of different transport modes was extensively compared. Results show that the highest energy insensitivity comes from civil aviation, followed by highways, railways, and petroleum and gas pipelines in succession. On the base of this, energy consumption and carbon emissions were calculated. Then, potential energy saving was analyzed. It is concluded that 1） although traffic increased rapidly after the 1990s in China, passenger-kilometers and freight ton-kilometers would continue growing rapidly in the future with the development of society and economy and improvement in living standard of people. But the growth rate would decline and the total consumption would increase after 2030. 2） At the same time, energy consumption and carbon emissions would also increase at high rates, with traffic growing fast; the growth rates of traffic would be faster than the social growth rates. The proportion of energy consumption for traffic to the total would be continuously increasing. The proportion of carbon emissions of traffic in the whole carbon emissions would also be continuously increasing. 3） In 2050, China would be a developed country. The rates of energy consumption and carbon emissions would be 16% and 14%, which are lower than the rates of current developed countries. Energy saving and emissions reduction of transportation seem to be highly effective. 4） Through analyzing potential energy conservation, change in the transportation pattern would lead to increasing energy consumption. Technical advancement is important to decrease energy consumption. To that end, in the medium-and-long term, it is critical for transportation pattern being shifted to an appropriate mode to improve energy utilization efficiency and reduce energy intensity of highways. In summary, traffic transportation is a major energy consumption sector. The implementation of energy conservation is essential to ensuring effective implementation of energy conversation in China. China will make great achievements in energy saving and carbon emissions reduction of transportation by adopting reasonable decisions.