基于使用者成本法的黄河三角洲石油资源价值折耗分析

Value Depletion Analysis of Oil Resources in the Yellow River Delta Based on the User Cost Approach

非再生资源自身价值折耗的计算是绿色GDP核算中环境成本的关键部分。本文以黄河三角洲2003年-2008年石油资源开发利用数据为对象,选择在贴现率为0%～6%的情况下,利用使用者成本法计算石油资源的价值折耗,研究发现使用者成本随着年份的增长而增加。并且,使用成本对贴现率的选择比较敏感,随贴现率的增加而减小,其中在贴现率为3%和4%时,2008年黄河三角洲石油资源折耗价值分别约为180亿元和122亿元,为使用者成本账户中较贴近现实的价值折耗数值。在贴现率在为3%～6%的范围内,价值折耗占净收入的比例平均达到30%左右。总体来看,黄河三角洲石油资源枯竭成本巨大,开发利用可持续性降低,并且未从国民财富中扣除,掩盖了经济真实的发展。自然资源可持续发展理念植入贴现率计算成为了不可再生资源合理开发利用的长久之策。

As the core indicator of System of National Accounts （SNA）, Gross domestic product （GDP） has not only a significant influence on steady economic growth in countries, but also falls short of taking into account the environmental cost. In this context, Green GDP has been become a widely accepted concept in recent years, which enables a comprehensive evaluation of economic developments and environmental costs. Value depletion of non-renewable resources is the major portion of environmental costs. Many methods are introduced to measure it in Green GDP. With major economic activities in coastal areas of Shandong Province, oil resources exploitation in the Yellow River delta is driving the development of the regional economy relying mainly on the Shengli Oil Field. Accounting of value depletion of oil resources of this region is of great significance to reflect real achievements of exploitation activities. In this paper, the internationally used ＂user cost approach＂ was applied to calculate value depletion of oil resources in the Yellow River delta based on statistical data within the framework of the System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting （SEEA）. According to the connotations in the Serafy’s method, user cost method, value depletion of oil resources exploited in the delta from 2003 to 2008 was estimated at 0% and 6% discount rates, respectively. Meanwhile correlative user cost account of calculation results was compiled, as well as physical account and value account in 2008. Diagrams of the analyzed data were drawn related to accounts and statements. It is showed that value depletion of oil resources in the delta rose markedly with year during the study period for the user cost account, and the depletion was up to more than 18 billion Yuan and 12 billion Yuan at 3% and 4% discount rates, respectively, in 2008. It is also found that the local GDP in 2008 was less than 180 billion Yuan and the proportion of the depletion in the local GDP reached 13.3% and 9.0% in 2008, respectively. Furthermore, the ratio of value depletion to net income in the same exploitation and development activities of oil resources in the delta reached 30% on average ranging from 3% to 6% discount rates. Accordingly, value depletion of oil resources in the delta seems to be huge and it would be detrimental to national wealth. Hence, the real economic development cannot be revealed distinctly. The poor sustainability of oil exploitation could be resulted by increasingly higher ratios of the value depletion to net income. Suggestions are put forward based on the results of the user cost approach in order to resolve issues unraveled.