基于LMDI指数分解的中国石油消费影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting China's Oil Consumption Based on LMDI

石油消费是能源消费的重要组成部分。为全面分析我国石油消费量变化情况及其影响因素,本文利用LMDI指数分解法将影响石油消费增长的因素分解为化石能耗结构效应、非清洁能耗效应、能源强度效应和经济规模效应四个部分。分解结果表明,经济规模效应是造成我国石油消费增长的主要原因;除个别年份或省区外,我国能源强度逐年降低,清洁能源消费比例稳步增长,能源结构逐步改善,我国石油供需矛盾趋于缓和。

Change in oil consumption is critical to energy security. To analyze the factors affecting the change in oil consumption, the Logaruthmic Mean Divisia Index （LMDI） was used in this study. For a comprehensive analysis of oil consumption in each province, the LMDI index decomposition was applied to analyze the internal structure of the change in oil consumption. By the LMDI index, the change in oil consumption was decomposed to the oil consumption ratio effect, fossil energy effect, energy intensity effect, and economic total effect . Comparative analysis of panel data at provincial levels indicates that the economy scale was an important reason for growth in oil consumption, which was particularly significant in eastern provinces. By crosswise analysis, it is found that China’s energy intensity decreased gradually, which prompted the Midwest provinces to reduce the growth in oil consumption. The proportion of clean energy consumption was steadily increased, which was particularly remarkable in Qinghai and Ningxia Provinces. The function of oil could be replaced by coal when the oil price rises sharply. The energy structure was improved, with showing the east being better than the Midwest. Based on dynamic analysis, the effect of the economy scale in most provinces became weakened, and the energy intensity was reduced gradually. The energy structure was improved progressively. To ensure safe and stable operation of the oil market, economic growth should not be overly dependent on energy consumption, and the dependency on carbon in developing economy should be reduced. For eastern areas, it is essential to reducing energy dependency, which is stimulated by relatively developed economy. For the Midwest, economic development was still the stimulus in energy consumption. Further reducing the dependence of economy on energy is important. As shown by the results, energy intensity was the important drivers of oil consumption in the east. Reducing energy intensity and improving energy efficiency are crucial to appeasing the conflicts between oil supply and demand. Although the situation on energy intensity in the Midwest was optimistic, the energy intensity helped to ease the conflicts between oil supply and demand. As the oil price rises, coal and natural gas would have more advantages than oil. Fossil energy consumption increases in most provinces over several years, and the energy consumption structure seems to be unreasonable, especially in the Midwest. The energy consumption structure should be diversified, and the percentage of electricity consumption should be increased to reduce the percentage of the fossil energy consumption.