华北地区干旱对中国主要农产品市场价格变动的影响预测

Impact of Drought on Price Fluctuation of Agricultural Production across the North China Region

近30年来,随着气候干暖化现象日趋严峻,旱灾对农业生产的影响愈加受到关注。本文以部门均衡理论为基础,构建了一个用于分析并预测区域干旱对全国主要农产品市场价格影响的模型。基于该模型,并辅以中国统计年鉴与中国农业年鉴统计数据,本文分析、预测了在华北地区发生不同程度旱灾情景下的我国8种主要农产品市场价格变化。研究结果表明,华北地区干旱会对全国主要农产品市场价格产生一定的影响,但影响程度普遍较低。即便是在严重干旱情景下,全国各主要农产品市场价格的增幅也不会超过3.59%,不会影响我国农产品市场的正常运行。本文探索的方法及其结论为评估干旱对我国农产品市场的影响、制订防灾减灾规划、确保区域乃至全国主要农产品供给安全提供了一定的决策参考价值。

Over the past three decades, economic loss from the agricultural sector in the North China Region has generally increased due to increasingly severe drought. In this paper, an estimation model was built based on the partial equilibrium theory, which appears to be capable of simulating the fluctuation of market prices of agricultural products corresponding to the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Four types of crop products （including rice, wheat, maize, and legume）, four types of livestock products （including pork, beef, eggs, and milk product）, as well as three types of production factors （including capital, labor, and land） are comprehensively taken into account in the proposed model. Three scenarios, i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, and severe drought, were designed so as to obtain more robust results. Using this model and data from China Statistical Yearbook and China Agriculture Yearbook, we estimated market price fluctuations of eight types of crop and livestock products across the North China Region under the three drought scenarios. Results indicate that the prices of rice, wheat, and beef could rise by 0.67%, the prices of maize, pork, eggs, and milk products could rise by 0.56%, and the price of legume could rise by 0.57% under the mild drought scenario compared with that under the absence of drought. Under the scenario of moderate drought, the prices of maize, pork, eggs, and milk products rise by 1.78%-1.79%, and the prices of wheat and rice rise by 1.89% and 1.78%, respectively, with reference to the absence of drought. The rise in beef price could be 1.91% and the rise in legume price could reach 1.72% under the absence of drought. Under the scenario of severe drought, prices of rice, wheat, maize, and legume could rise by 3.56%-3.57%. The rise of the beef price of 3.59% is severest among all crop and livestock products. The prices of eggs and milk products could rise by 3.47% and 3.46%, respectively, which are smaller compared with other crop and livestock products. It is concluded that there are somewhat impacts on the market prices of major agricultural products incurred by drought which would occur in the North China Region. However, the impacts of drought on the rise in prices of rice, wheat, maize, legume, pork, beef, eggs, and milk products are generally no more than 3.59% under all three scenarios. The modeling framework and the results of the case study can provide meaningful reference for decision-making in evaluating the impacts of natural disasters on prices of agricultural products, making disaster prevention planning, and ensuring food security at both regional and national levels.