基于物质流分析方法的安徽省环境载荷及其减量化研究

Environmental Load of Anhui Province and Its Reduction:An Approach of Material Flow Analysis

采用物质流分析方法构建了表征环境压力总量的环境载荷指标,对1990年-2007年安徽省环境载荷变化趋势及其减量化状态进行了定量分析。结果表明:全省环境荷载输出占环境总荷载的比重较小,经济发展的驱动力主要依靠省内资源的开发利用;环境效率提高产生的减量效应明显,全省环境载荷实现了一定程度的相对减量化,但经济增长引起的反弹效应强于环境效率提高产生的减量效应,省内环境总载荷增加,尚未实现环境载荷绝对减量化;全省环境效率处于较低水平,实现环境载荷零增长甚至负增长,仍需要实现环境效率的倍数革命;按照2020年GDP在2000年基础上翻两番的经济发展目标,初步预测2020年环境载荷要在2007年基础上实现零增长,则需实现环境效率约2倍数革命。

The goal of this paper was to quantify the trends and the reduction status of environmental load of Anhui province during the period 1990-2007. Based on key indices recommend by Eurostat, seven indices, including total material requirement （TMR）, direct material input （DMI）, hiding flow （HF）, input （I）, indirect flow （IF）, domestic processing output （DPO）, and total domestic output （TDO）, were adopted. Subsequently, the material flow analysis （MFA） method was employed to construct the indictor system of environmental load that indicated the environmental stress. Results show that 1） the output of environmental load accounted for a small proportion of the total environmental load. Therefore, the driving force of economic development was mainly the exploitation and utilization of natural resources in Anhui province. 2） The reduction effect in environmental load was significant due to improvement in environmental efficiency. This indicates that to some extent the target for relative reduction of environmental load was achieved at a provincial scale. A typical U-shape reverse trend of reduction in environmental load was observed. However, the rebound effect due to economic growth was more significant than the reduction effect due to improvements in environmental efficiency. As a result, this has led to continuing increases in domestic environmental load. It is estimated that the net increase in domestic environmental load was 3.295×109 t during the period 1999- 2007. This suggests that the goal of realizing absolute reduction on provincial scales was not achieved yet. 3） The level of environmental efficiency was still low on provincial scales, indicating the current status of weak sustainable development. Thus, in the long run it is urgent to advocate and push the factor revolution of environmental efficiency to achieve the goals of zero increase and even the negative increase in environmental load. 4） According to Anhui province’s strategic plan for economic development, compared with GDP recorded in the base year of 2000, the total GDP must double in 2020. However, this province is still an underdeveloped region in China. Given the weakness of resources exploitation, technical innovation, and marketing, it is projected that the rebound effect due to economic growth will be more significant. Thus, if we set the environmental load and environmental efficiency in 2007 as a baseline, it is estimated that the two-fold factor revolution of environmental efficiency is a prerequisite for realizing the goal of zero growth of provincial environmental load in 2020.