辽西地区区域性大雾气候特征及分析预报

Climate Features of Regional Fog in Liaoxi Area and Forecast Analysis

利用1995~2004年辽西地区4个代表站的大雾观测资料,分析了该区区域性大雾天气的气候统计特征,统计出易产生大雾天气的地面和高空形势场及其出现频率,从大雾产生的条件和形成机制两方面入手,提出判别大雾出现的预报指标,并结合近10年的历史资料对预报指标进行了验证。选取单站2004年7~12月的历史资料进行抽样预报效果检验,总的空报率为22.2%,漏报率为5.1%,检验效果较好。

By using the fog data,from 1995 to 2004,of four selected observation stations,the weather features of foggy days in Liaoxi area have been studied in this paper.The favorable surface and upper circulation for fog and its frequency have also been concluded from the statistic.In this paper,the forecasting index of fog,proposed on the basis of the condition and mechanism of the fog occurrence,has been tested by the 10-year analysis.Another test conducted by using the data of 1st July-31st December,2004 also gives a good result which has a vacancy rate of 22.2% and a miss rate of 5.1%.