美国对外政策决策的分析--层次、视角与理论模式

The U.S. Foreign Policy-Making Analysis: Levels, Perspectives and Theoretical Models

基于宏观、中观和微观三个层次,作者从体系、国家、社会、组织和个体五种视角梳理了美国对外政策决策多种理论模式,它们分别是国际体系理论模式、理性行为者模式、多元论模式、小集团模式、官僚政治模式、组织过程模式和决策者个人认知理论。这些理论模式虽然弥补了传统研究的不足,也有助于解释美国式制度下的外交决策特征,但它们都存在理论假设不足、理论模式应用的普遍性不足以及综合性理论缺乏等问题。由于各种理论模式都只从某一特定角度解释美国对外政策决策,分析美国对外政策的决策特征要求研究者对各种已有理论模式的应用范围进行探讨。作者从决策客体和决策主体两个角度对此问题进行了分析,即决策客体主要从危机情势、现状是否改变以及议题范围三方面探讨不同理论模式的应用范围;决策主体主要从决策者的管理风格角度探讨理论模式的应用。

Based on macro-level, middle-level and micro-level analysis and from five perspectives (system, nation, society, organization and individual), the author makes a comprehensive analysis of the theories of U.S. foreign policy-making: international system theory, rational actor model, pluralism, groupthink model, bureaucratic politics model, organizational process model and individual cognition. It argues that the various perspectives can make up for the shortage of traditional studies and cater for explaining the foreign policy-making under the U.S. system; however, there are still some problems in assumptions and some shortages in application, and a lack of a comprehensive, systematic and objective theory. Since each theory only gives explanations from a certain perspective, this paper attempts to discuss the conditions for applying these theories with the following variables: crisis situation, status quo or non-status quo, high politics or low politics, and policy-makers’ style.