摘要
主要综述了数据误差、随机误差和模式物理误差所造成的城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性，简要介绍分析预报不确定性的统计方法。
The Uncertainties in city air quality numerical predictions induced by data error, model uncertainty and stochastic error are mainly described in this paper. The statistic methods used for analyzing the uncertainties and the predictability caused by inner stochastic and outer errors are also briefly introduced.
基金
国家自然科学基金
山东省自然科学基金
关键词
空气质量预报
不确定性
可预报性
数值预报
city air quality prediction
uncertainty
predictability
data error
model uncertainty
stochastic error
