消费者信心、心理恐慌对我国进口贸易的影响

Impact on Chinese Import Trade From Psychological Panic

影响进口贸易的因素有很多,消费者的心理因素往往被忽视。本文选取2007—2010年月度数据,实证研究了国际金融危机期间心里恐慌对我国进口贸易的影响。结果表明:在国际金融危机的影响下,消费者心理恐慌对我国进口存在明显的负面影响。同时,人民币汇率的升值对我国进口的影响与传统经济理论截然相反,即引起我国进口贸易总额的下降。本文所得到的结论将会对我国扩大内需的经济政策和更多的关于进口的研究有帮助。

A country＇s import can be influenced by various aspects.In studies about China＇s import trade,however,functions of psychological factors tend to be ignored.In this paper,empirical research,based on 2007—2010 monthly data,is carried out to discover how China＇s import trade is influenced by psychological panic during the International Financial Crisis.As is found,the decline of the Chinese consumer confidence did have negatively impact on China＇s import.The rising of the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB didn＇t help to enhance China＇s import but let it down,which is opposite to the traditional economic theories.Implications of these findings will help develop economic policies in China and further research about import.