厄尔尼诺海区海温季节预测比较

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE SEASONAL SST'S FORECAST PERFORMANCES IN EL NINO SEA AREAS

利用奇异值分解方法建立多项线性统计气候预测模型，对厄尔尼诺海区各季节海温进行了短期气候预测试验，并采用历史资料独立样本检验的方法，评定不同预报时效的预报技巧。结果表明，不同海区各季节的预报效果相差很大。赤道西太平洋（ Ｎｉｎｏ ４区）有最高的可预报性，在夏季末做冬季海温预报的技巧最高，多数条件下，这个区域的预报性能比较稳定。以海温和南方涛动指数作因子场的预报效果最好，大部分预报以单季的海温和南方涛动指数为预报因子效果较好，但有些预报以连续２季或３季的海温和南方涛动指数作预报因子的预报效果更好。

By using SVD method,this paper develops a multivariate linear statistical climatic forecast model to perform a short term climatic sea surface temperature (SST) forecast test in several areas of the tropical Pacific.The forecast correlation skills for the different forecast periods are examined by historical independent sample tests.The results indicate that:the SST forecast correlation skills for each season are very different in different sea areas;there is the highest predictability in the west of equatorial Pacific (Nino4 area);and the forecast performance is stable under most conditions in this areas,with an excellent skill for winter SST forecast made at the end of summer.It is demonstrated that better forecast performance would be obtained when SST and SOI are included in predictors than when single SST or SOI is included.Sometimes,the forecast skills are more excellent when the earlier successive two or three seasons SST and SOI are taken as predictors,although,most of forecast skills are higher when one single seasons SST and SOI is taken as predictors.