地形变监测地震能力的评价

Evaluation for Seismic Monitoring Ability of Crustal Deformation

利用中国地震局第二监测中心1992-2007年的年度地震趋势研究报告为统计样本,对青藏块体东北缘地区的年度地震预报进行了检验,从一个侧面评价了当前地形变监测地震能力。结果显示在16年中无中强地震漏报,其中报对地震4个,报错地震19个,对错比例为21%。这表明地形变对中强以上地震有较强的监测能力,但由于二者之间尚无确定的对应关系,导致了错报率较高的现象。

Taking the annual seismicity trend reports from 1992 to 2007 given by Second Monitoring and Application Center,CEA,as statistical sample,the seismic monitoring and annual earthquake prediction for northeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet block using crustal deformation data are tested.The capacity of earthquake prediction using crustal deformation anomalies is evaluated.The results show that there was no pretermission of prediction for moderate-strong earthquake in 16 years,4 events were predicted correctly and 19 times failed,the accuracy ratio of prediction is about 21%.It is indicated that crustal deformation monitoring has good predictive capacity to moderate-strong earthquake.But caused by the uncertainty of corresponding relationship between crustal deformation and earthquake event,the percentage of failure is much higher than one of accuracy.