太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报

A Review of the Short-Term Prediction of Solar Proton Event Flares

回顾产生太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报，讨论短期预报在近期应做的研究．给出以下结论：（１）在６０年代和７０年代，质子事件耀斑的预报有相当大的进展；（２）新预报方法的探索和质子流在日冕与行星际的传播问题，是当前改进短期预报的关键；（３）对实际应用的短期预报工作的改进，可能需要从空间天气预报的角度，研究太阳活动区的分类．

The prediction of flares of solar proton events is here briefly reviewed, with emphasison the prediction factors and prediction levels. Conclusions obtained are (l) that majoradvances in this kind of prediction had been made in the 1960s and 1970s, (2) that theproblems the forecasters are now facing are search for new prediction methods and thepropagation process of proton beams in the solar corona and interplanetary medium, and(3) that a new classification of solar active regions from the point of view of space weatherprediction seems to be very much needed.