趋势季节模型在菌痢发病预测中的应用

Application of tendency-season model in forecasting of bacterium dysentery

目的探讨趋势季节模型是否适用于细菌性痢疾(简称菌痢)的发病预测。方法利用我中心疾病监测信息系统2001-2006年鹤壁市菌痢发病资料,用趋势季节模型的方法预测2007-2009年鹤壁市各季度的菌痢发病率,观察预测发病率与实际发病率是否一致。结果用趋势季节模型的方法预测,2007年各季度预测发病率分别为0.32‰、1.55‰、4.08‰、0.96‰,实际发病率分别为0.37‰、1.31‰、3.77‰、0.94‰;2008年各季度预测发病率分别为0.29‰、1.41‰、3.96‰、0.36‰,实际发病率分别为0.44‰、0.91‰、4.04‰、0.52‰;2009年1、2、3、4季度预测发病率分别为0.26‰、1.27‰、3.31‰、0.56‰,实际发病率分别为0.17‰、1.20‰、2.67‰、0.43‰,利用趋势季节模型计算出的预测发病率与实际发病率均相接近。结论利用趋势季节模型预测我市菌痢的发病率是适用的,其它地区、其它疾病的发病只要符合趋势季节变化,均可使用该模型进行预测。

Objective To discussion whether tendency-season model were suitable for bacterium dysentery forecasting.Method Using the data which came from disease surveillance system during 2001 to 2006 in Hebi city to forecasting the bacterium dysentery incidence rate by tendency-season model,and observed forecasted incidence and actual incidence.Results With the tendency-season model,the forecasted incidence rate of 1 to 4 quarter in 2007 were 0.32‰,1.55‰,4.08‰,and 0.96‰,respectively,the actual incidence rate were 0.37‰,1.31‰,3.77‰,and 0.94‰,respectively.In 2008,forecasted incidence rate were 0.29‰,1.41‰,3.96‰,and 0.36‰ respectively,the actual incidence rate were 0.44‰,0.91‰,4.04‰,and 0.52‰ respectively.In 2009,forecasted incidence rate were 0.26‰,1.27‰,3.31‰,and 0.56‰ respectively,the actual incidence rate were 0.17‰,1.20‰,2.67‰,and 0.43‰ respectively.The results showed that the forecasted incidence rate was close to actual incidence.Conclusions Tendency-season model applied to forecasting of bacterium dysentery in our city.Elsewhere and other diseases if they were according to the tendency-season can use this model to forecasting.