深圳市宝安区流感样病例暴发疫情相关因素多元回归分析

Multiple regression analysis of the factors related to the incidence rate of influenza-like illness outbreak in Bao'an District of Shenzhen City

目的了解深圳市宝安区流感样病例暴发疫情罹患率的相关因素。方法收集2006年1月～2009年12月深圳市宝安区流感样病例暴发疫情资料,应用描述性流行病学和多元回归分析方法分析暴发疫情及流行相关因素。结果 2006年1月～2009年12月深圳市宝安区共发生77起流感暴发疫情,平均罹患率为4.48%,罹患率有逐年下降趋势;病例主要分布于6～19岁的人群,多发于3～6月和9～11月,87.01%(67/77)发生在学校。甲型流感阳性率为34.77%(129/371),乙型阳性率为20.75%(77/371)。以罹患率Y为应变量进行多元回归分析,有3个因素(疫情持续时间X4、首次报告发病人数X5、暴露人数X6)进入方程。结论宝安区流感样病例暴发疫情防控重点对象是中小学生,应加强在校学生流感样病例的监测,以降低暴发疫情的发生概率。疫情发生单位应该尽早报告疫情,以便迅速采取综合控制措施,控制效果才更好。

Aim To investigate the factors related to incidence rate of influenza-like illness outbreaks in Baoan District of Shenzhen.Methods The data of influenza-like illness outbreaks from January 2006 to December 2009 in Baoan District were collected and the factors were analyzed.Results There 77 influenza-like illness outbreaks occurred in Baoan District with an average incidence of 4.48%showing a decreading trend.Most cases were aged 6-19 years and 87.01%（67/77）occurred in schools.The positive rates of influenza type A and B were 34.77%（129/371）and 20.75%（77/ 371）respectively.The results of multiple regression analysis showed that the duration of the infection,the number of cases first reported and the number of people exposed to virus were the factors related to outbreak incidence.Conclusion The primary and middle school students are the targets to be protected from acquiring influenza-like illness and the monitoring work in schools be strengthened.To gain better control results early report of the infections is indicated and integrated measures be adopted in case there is a prevalence of the diseases.