地震学预报指标研究中的“场兆”和“源兆”问题

Field precursor and source precursor in study on seismological prediction indexes

分析了地震活动图象和地震学预报指标研究中的“场兆”和“源兆”问题。指出：未来的震源仅仅是区域应力场中若干应力集中区之一；多数地震活动图象和地震预报指标反映的是区域应力场的变化；现在已有可能从地震活动图象和地震学预报指标的综合研究，找出一个或几个应力集中区，但还没有什么指标和方法能判断哪一个应力集中区一定和何时会发生强震。由此建议，在确定若干应力集中区之后，将哪一个应力集中区将会发震的判别标志作为进一步攻关的关键性问题。

Field precursor and source precursor in study on seismicity pattern and seismological prediction indexes have been analyzed in this paper, It is indicated that: the coming seismic source is only the one of several stress concentrated regions; most of seismicity pattern and seismological prediction indexes reflect the variation of regional stress field; at present, it is possible to find out one or several stress concentrated regions according to the synthetical study of seismicity pattern and seismological prediction indexes, but no indexes and methods can explain which stress concentrated region will occur earthquake, and when it occurs. Based on that, it is suggested that after several stress concentrated regions are defined, the indexes that distinguish earthquake occur in which stress concentrated region is the key in the further research.