中国中长期宏观节能潜力分析:国际比较与国际经验

China's Mid to Long Term Energy Conservation Potential:International Comparison and Foreign Experience

未来我国能源需求规模存在较多不确定性,把握节能潜力是设定节能目标并采取相应政策措施的前提条件。力求从更大范围的国际比较和更长历史时期的国际经验来讨论我国的节能潜力。依据人均GDP、经济结构、人均钢材和水泥保有量、人均用电量、人均居民生活用电量等指标,结合资源禀赋结构、气候条件、设备用能效率差异、后发优势等因素综合考量,从能源经济发展阶段来看,目前我国大致处在美国1960年左右的水平,处在英、法、德、意、日五大工业国1970-1980年间的水平。参考发达国家近50年来的能源发展经验和我国近30年来的发展历程,2010-2030年我国年均经济增速潜力超过8.5%,能源弹性系数潜力为0.6;单位GDP能耗年均下降潜力超过3.4%,累计下降潜力大约为50%。

There is much uncertainty in China＇s future energy demand.It is necessary to analyse the energy conservation potential before setting energy intensity reduction target and taking proper policy measures.This paper discusses China＇s energy conservation potential based on wide international comparison and long historical experience analysis.Considering the economic structure,and GDP,steel,cement stock,electricity consumption per capita,resource endowment,climate conditions,energy using efficiency,and backward advantage,we conclude that from the perspective of economic-energy development,China is currently at the same development stage as the United States around 1960,and the same level of United King,France,Germany,Japan and Italy in the range of 1970-1980.According to the development experiences of OECD countries in the latest 50 years and China＇s experience of in the latest 30 years,China＇s economic growth rate is expected to over 8.5% annually during 2010-2030,and its energy demand elasticity is expected to remain at around 0.6.Thus the annual energy intensity reduction potential per GDP is over 3.4% during 2010-2030,and the accumulated reduction is about 50%.