中国道路交通伤害长期趋势与人均国内生产总值的关系

The relationship between secular trend of road traffic injuries and gross domestic product per capita in China

目的探讨中国内地道路交通伤害的长期趋势及与人均国内生产总值（GDP）之间的关系。方法对1970-2009年道路交通伤害的事故数、受伤人数、死亡人数、里程死亡率、10万人口死亡率进行统计学描述，采用聚类分析对全国内地的31个省、市、自治区进行归类，应用生态学研究探讨中国道路交通伤害死广率与人均GDP的关系。结果我国道路交通伤害经历了1970-2002年快速上升（1．16／10万～8．52／10万）、2003-2004年稳定（8．08／10万～8．24／10万）、2005-2009年明显下降（7．55／10万-5．08／10万）3个时期。生态学研究结果表明道路交通伤害人口死广率随着人均GDP上升而上升，但当人均GDP达到14053元（相当于1716美元，2005年）时，道路交通伤害人口死亡率开始明显下降，平均每年以10．16％（8．14％～10．52％）的速度递降。伞国内地31个省、市、自治区按1999-2009年人均GDP聚类可分为3类，不同经济类型地区的道路交通伤害死产率曲线与其人均GDP曲线存在同一生态学关系，即随人均GDP的增长先上升而后下降，均于2005年开始下降，但3类地区下降时的人均GDP水平不同（分别为45281元、22243元和10475元）。结论在经济发展的早期阶段，随着经济发展和人均GDPE升，道路交通伤害死亡率攀升；当经济发展达到一定水平时，死亡率则随着人均GDP上升而下降。

Objective To explore the relationship between secular trend of road traffic injuries （RTI） and gross domestic product（GDP） per capita in China. Methods Statistical description was used in the data about cases, injuries, deaths, mileage mortality and 10 million population mortality from 1970 to 2009. Cluster analysis was used to classify the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China. Ecological study was used to explore the relationship between RTI and GDP per capita. Results There were three stages of RTI in China. It grew rapidly in 1970 -2002 （from 1.16 to 8.52 per 10 million population） ,kept steady in 2003 -2004 （from 8.08 to 8.24 per 10 million population）, and decreased obviously in 2005 -2009 （from 7.55 to 5.08 per 10 million population）. The ecological study showed that the population mortality of RTI rose along with the GDP per capita＇s growth. When the GDP per capita reached to 14 053 yuan （equivalent to 1716 US dollar,in 2005） ,the mortality began to decrease obviously, the average annual decreasing rate was 10. 16% （8. 14% - 10. 52% ）in the following five years. According to the GDP per capita during the period of 1999 - 2009, the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China were divided into three categories of region. The curves of population mortality of RTI and GDP per capita in different category possessed the same ecological trend. That was the population mortality early rose and then fell along with the GDP per capita＇s growth. All of they started to decrease obviously in 2005. The GDP per capita among three categories of region was different （45 281 yuan,22 243 yuan and 10 475 yuan respectively） in the same period. Conclusion In the early stage of economic development, the mortality of RTI increased along with the economic development. When the economic development reached a certain level,the mortality decreased along with the GDP per capita＇s growth.