基于师资预测的西部教师可持续性发展研究——以四川省为例

Study on the Sustainable Development of Western School Teachers Based on the Forecast of the Teachers' Demand in Sichuan Province

利用四川省历年教育统计数据,通过数学建模预测教师需求量,指出西部地区教师发展面临着义务教育阶段教师需求减少,竞争加剧,高中教师短缺,职业教育教师发展滞后以及教师结构性矛盾突出,迫切需要调整其战略布局等问题。提出需求导向的培养取向、坚持"开放混合型"教师培养模式、建设教师发展学校、完善教师资格证书制度及加强农村民族地区教师培养,实现不同层次教师均衡发展等西部教师发展策略。

Based on the educational statistics of Sichuan province,this paper builds mathematical models to forecast the number of students and the needs of school teachers during 2010 to 2020.The study finds out that the needs of teachers for compulsory education will decline and the high school teachers will be lacking in the future.The study advises the training strategies such as insisting on demand orientation,building schools for development of teachers,perfecting the system of teachers qualification certificate and enhancing the preparation of teachers in the ethnic rural areas.