软件项目风险应对措施优选的区间模型及其算法

Interval model and its algorithm for optimal selecting of software project risk response actions

针对软件项目风险应对计划中风险应对措施的优选问题,提出一种区间优化模型.该模型基于项目视角,以风险应对成本和风险水平最小化为目标,结合考虑风险管理者的风险偏好,选出满意的风险应对措施组合.考虑到风险概率和风险损失等参数难以给出精确值,模型采用区间数来表示风险概率和风险损失信息.针对模型的求解,利用区间数距离定义和区间数排序规则,给出一种迭代求解算法.案例分析表明了该模型和算法的有效性和可操作性.

For the optimal selecting problem of risk response actions in software project risk planning stage,an interval model is proposed,which selects the satisfactory combination of risk response actions according to the minimum of risk response cost and risk level,combined with decisionmaker’s risk preference,from the whole project perspective.Due to gain the exact value of risk probability and risk loss with very difficulty,the model denotes the parameters by interval numbers.Then,an iterative algorithm based on the definition of interval distance and the method of interval numbers ranking is given to solve the model.A case analysis shows the effectiveness and the maneuverability of the model and the algorithm.