公路交通投资与经济增长的关系

Research on Causal Relationship Between Highway Transoport Investment and Economic Growth

区域公路交通投资与经济增长之间相互影响的课题是交通领域中未解决的问题之一。基于格兰杰因果关系检验的基本原理与回归分析方法建立数学模型研究区域公路交通投资与经济增长之间的内在依存关系。经济发展的不同阶段,区域的公路交通投资与GDP总量之间均存在着互为因果关系。相同阶段经济增长与公路交通投资的相互之间推动作用不同。1978年以后经济增长对公路交通投资的推动作用由1978年前的118%下降到1978年后的48.2%。1978年后公路交通投资对经济增长的推动作用由1978年前的14.8%上升到1978年后的30.5%。

One of the major unresolved research issues in transport is the question as to whether transport infrastructure investment promotes economic growth or economic growth impacts highway transport infrastructure investment at the regional and local levels.Using the concept of Granger-causality,the finding herein suggest that the economic growth and highway transport investment is the Granger-causality each other.The regression analysis models are applied to analyze the relationship between highway transport investment and economic growth.The analysis reveal that before 1978,GDP increased by 100%,highway transport investment would increase by 118% correspondingly;while after 1978,the same increase rate in GDP only caused the increase in highway transport investment by 48.2%.On the other hand,before 1978,highway transport investment increased by 100%,GDP would only increase by 14.8%;while after 1978,the same increase rate of highway transport investment would cause the increase in GDP by 30.5%.