家庭成员外出务工对农村老年人劳动供给的影响--基于“替代效应”和“收入效应”

The Influence of Family Members'Working Out of Countryside on Their Senior Family Members Stayed at Home

随着农村劳动力转移,老年人已成为我国农业生产的重要主体。运用IV-Tobit模型分析农村家庭劳动力外出务工对老年人农业劳动时间的影响,并将这一影响进一步分离为"收入效应"和"替代效应",其回归分析结果表明:家庭成员外出打工人数所引起的"替代效应"处于主导地位,而且非常显著;外出打工收入所带来的"收入效应"不显著;农村劳动力外出打工整体上显著增加了农村老年人的农业劳动时间。如果不考虑家庭成员外出打工决定的内生性,农村劳动力外出务工对老年人劳动供给时间的影响效果将被低估。

With the transfer of rural labor,the senior farmers have become the main labor force in agricultural production.This paper analyzes the effects of the rural-urban migration on the aging labor in agriculture,i.e.the income effect and the substitution effect,in China's rural areas.This paper makes an empirical analysis of these effects using the test and estimation approaches of endogenous Tobit model.The results show that the substitution effect of migration dominates the income effect,and migrants significantly increase aging labor supply.If we didn't take the endogenous migration decision in to account,the effects would be underestimated.