江苏省电力需求的短期预测

Short-term prediction of electricity demand of Jiangsu province

为了促进江苏省经济的持续稳定增长,运用霍尔特双参数指数平滑模型,GM(1,1)模型以及组合预测模型对江苏省的电力需求进行预测,并分析预测值与实际值的误差和相对误差,选出了最优模型,根据最优模型对江苏省2010—2014年的电力需求进行预测。

In order smoothing model, GM to promote Jiangsu economic stability and sustain growth,Hoh two-parameter exponential （1,1） model and the combined forecasting model are used for predicting the electricity demand of Jiangsu province in this paper. Then it analyzes the error and relative error of the predictive value and actual value and selects the optimal model.Finally, according to the optimal model,the paper predicts electricity demand of Jiangsu province in 2010-2014.