电信业发展对我国经济增长的影响研究

Study on the effect of telecommunication industry development for the economic growth in China

以运用向量自回归(VAR)模型,将电信业的消费和投资两个方面综合起来,考察它们对经济增长的长期动态影响,在研究方法和数据选择方面,都比现有的研究文献有所改进。通过分析表明:电信业的消费和投资都对经济增长具有促进作用,但从长期来看,电信业的消费对经济增长的促进作用逐渐加大,而电信业的投资对经济增长的促进作用逐渐减少。从而提出电信业企业应该不断推出新的产品和服务,改进服务质量,以满足人们对于电信业产品和服务的需求,从而促进经济增长。

This papers applies the VAR model with the consumption and investment of telecommunication industry to analysis their long-run dynamic effect for the economy growth.There are improvement in the method and the data.The result shows that the telecommunication industry can boost the economy growth,but in the long run,the consumption of telecommunication has the increasing effect for the economy growth,but the investment of the industry have the decreasing effect.This conclusion suggest that the companies of telecommunication industry should develop more products and service and improve the quality of the service to need the demand of people and boost the economy growth.