金融稳定分析的宏观模型综述及展望

Reviews and Prospects about Macro Models of Financial Stability Analysis

金融系统的稳定性水平是金融功能是否有效发挥的反映,加入WTO后中国政府对经济系统进行了诸多方面的改革,金融系统的稳定性得到明显提升,但也存有压力与风险。金融稳定分析的宏观模型包括扩展的宏观经济模型、动态随机一般均衡模型和网络模型。其中,动态随机一般均衡模型具有较好的现实拟合度,应用性较强。应根据中国的社会背景和特殊的金融制度,构建中国特色的动态随机一般均衡模型。

Stability level of the financial system is the reflection whether the financial function effectively plays.After the accession to the WTO,Chinese government carries on many aspects reform of economic system,the stability of the financial system are obviously ascent,but also entities pressure and risks.Macro models of financial instability analysis include expanded macroeconomic model,dynamic random general equilibrium model and network model.Among them,the dynamic random general equilibrium model has good reality fitting degree,and stronger applicability.We should construct the dynamic random general equilibrium models with Chinese characteristics according to Chinese social background and special financial system.