我国CO_2排放量变化的影响因素分析

Influencing Factors of Changes of CO_2 Emissions in China

国际社会和我国政府对温室气体,尤其是二氧化碳(CO2)的排放非常重视。运用卡亚公式能找出影响CO2排放量的主要因素,为了解各因素对我国CO2排放量变化的具体影响,运用完全分解模型对CO2排放量变化的影响进行分解分析,结果发现:在1990—2006年,对我国CO2排放量增大起正作用的依次是人均GDP、人口数量、密度,起副作用的是能源强度;要减少我国的CO2排放量,必须控制人口规模、改善产业结构、能源结构和推动节能减排技术的发展。

The international community and the central authorities of China pay attention to the greenhouse gas emissions,especially the carbon dioxide（CO2） emissions.The primary factors affected the CO2 emissions had been pointed out in Kaya Formula.To find out the influencing factors of China＇s CO2 emissions,this paper analyzes it with a complete decomposition model,the results show that：（1） the factors which have positive effect on the increase of China＇s CO2 missions are GDP per capita,population and emissions per unit of energy consumption,and the factor is the energy intensity,which has the negative effect on the increase of China＇s CO2 emissions during 1990—2006;（2） in order to decrease China＇s CO2 missions,China should control the size of population,improve the industry structure and the energy structure,promote the technologies on energy-saving and emission-reducing.