摘要
理论研究表明,关税政策影响经济增长的路径有可能是通过国际贸易和科技进步实现的。采用1978～2009年我国经济相关数据,建立VEC模型进行实证研究,结果表明,我国经济增长与关税政策存在的长期协整关系;由于关税税率冲击对进出口的短期影响为负,长期收敛于较小的负值;对技术进步的短期影响为负,长期影响不稳定。因此,关税政策长期影响经济增长的路径依赖于我国贸易,而短期影响路径则通过国际贸易和技术进步。
Most economic theories show the impact path of the tariff policy on economic growth may be through two in-between variables,international trade and technical progress.Using China＇s economic data from 1978 to 2009 we made a VEC model.The main conclusions are as follows（1） there is a cointergration relationship between the economic growth and the tariff policy in China;（2） because the short-term effect of the tariff policy on import-export is negative and the long-term effect would converges to smaller negative value,the short-term effect on the technical progress is negative and the long-term effect is inapparent,the effect of the tariff policy on the economic growth depends on the international trade in the long time and on the international trade and technical progress in the short time.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期26-31,共6页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"推动自主创新的政策体制机制和政策措施研究"阶段性成果(09BJY020)
关键词
关税政策
技术进步
国际贸易
经济增长
VEC模型
tariff policy
technical progress
international trade
economic growth
VEC model
