人民币有效汇率波动对我国分类出口产品的影响——基于两时段面板数据的实证研究

Effect of RMB Effective Exchange Rate fluctuation To China's Classified Exportation——Based on Two Stage Panel Data Method

以2005年1月～2010年10月和2007年2月～2010年10月两个时间段为样本期,选取我国9个主要贸易伙伴国或地区按HS分类标准分类的出口品,按照技术含量再分为初级产品、再加工产品和制成品三大类,利用面板数据方法,研究我国对各贸易伙伴国或地区的三类产品的出口额如何受到两时期的人民币有效汇率变动影响,发现各国两时期各类产品的出口需求弹性存在不对称性,并从贸易结构变动角度给出政策建议。

This paper chooses Jan.2005 to Oct.2010 and Feb,2007 to Oct.2010 as two sample stage.We take HS standard exportation of nine main trade partners of our country.According to technology value-added,we classify them into primary products,reprocessing products and manufactured goods further.Using panel data method,we study how these three types of exportation are affected by RMB effective exchange rate fluctuation in two stages.We find out that each country＇s export demand elasticity is different.At last,we give some suggestions on Trade structure adjustment.