中国金融中心城市房地产价格与银行信贷的关系

Interaction between property prices and bank lending of China's financial centres

首先探讨了房地产价格波动与银行信贷之间的关系,阐述了中国金融中心城市的特征及其房地产市场与一般城市的差异性.在此基础上,选取香港、北京、上海、深圳4个中国金融中心城市进行实证分析,运用多变量协整分析技术以及向量自回归模型,对金融中心城市房地产价格与银行信贷之间的关系进行实证检验.研究结果表明:各个金融中心城市房地产价格与银行信贷之间存在长期均衡关系,其中,香港由于房地产融资渠道较多,其房地产价格和银行信贷之间的相互影响程度小于其他3个金融中心.最后,建议应拓宽房地产企业融资渠道,并完善住房保障体系.

This paper analyses the interaction between property prices and bank lending and also describes the characteristics of the property markets of financial centers.This paper aims at identifying the linkages between property prices and bank lending in China＇s financial centers,by exemplifying the cases of Hong Kong,Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen.Applying VAR model and time series techniques,this paper finds that long-run causality appears between property prices and bank lending for each financial center.As for Hong Kong,the interaction between property prices and bank lending is weaker than the other three financial centers.Our findings have important policy implications.